ALEX BRUMMER: Trump casts a global pall with his trade policies (2024)

Arriving in Austin, the Texas state capital, the main arteries between the airport and downtown were snarled up.

Former president Donald Trump was in town and the roads were shut for security purposes.

Trump's main reason for being in Austin was an interview on Joe Rogan's podcast, which has 33m listeners and subscribers.

It is among America's most popular, featuring quirky guests, including some with an anti-vax agenda. Social media and podcasts have enormous cut through for voters in 2024.

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Rallies, however, still remain an important part of the US political landscape and Trump also took the opportunity to hold a campaign event in Austin, a Democratic enclave, as well as Houston.

Texas, largely Republican, is not a swing state in presidential elections. Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win in the State, way back in 1976.

But it is impossible to ignore the nation's fastest-growing city, Austin, and Texas, the US's second most important economic powerhouse after California.

Also critical in Texas is a close race for the US Senate with Congressman Colin Allred, a former professional American footballer, giving Right-wing incumbent Senator Ted Cruz a run for his money.

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As a consequence, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris felt it important to make a parallel appearance in Houston with glittering pop icon Beyonce at her side.

Austin is the adopted home of Elon Musk and Tesla, has a huge Google presence and is home of Dell. That's before one considers oil and natural gas extraction in the Texan Permian Basin, home to fracking.

The state also is the surprising leader in US onshore windfarms which power much of the state's electricity. Note to Keir Starmer. It is perfectly possible to run carbon free and fossil fuel technologies in the same geography.

In spite of the generally good health of the economy, the Democrats are failing to capture the imagination of traditional pocket-book issues

Americans go to the polls on November 5, less than week after Labour's long awaited first Budget, and the financial world is on tenterhooks. The US, in contrast to most of the rest of the wealthy Group of Seven economies, is doing fine.

The latest IMF forecast, released last week, upgrades US growth for this year to 2.8pc. So much for the fears in August that the mighty tech-driven American economy was heading for recession. Next year output is projected to rise by 2.2 per cent.

Inflation is falling towards the 2 per cent target and the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, lowered its key interest rate by half a percentage point to a 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent range in September with more cuts on the horizon. All this ought to be helpful to Vice President Harris as she seeks to succeed Joe Biden in the top job.

Yetin spite of the generally good health of the economy, the Democrats are failing to capture the imagination of traditional pocket-book issues.

At the weekend, I went to a gig by the bluegrass group Strawberry Flats at a craft cider producer on the fringes of Austin. A newly written song, The Beggars Union, was belted out on the issue of inflation.

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The consumer price index may be on the way down, but for ordinary folks the scars of the cost of living still live on. The song was greeted with raucous applause and yells of approval by the audience.

One starts to better understand why the Trump message of bringing jobs back home through the imposition of tariffs and cutting taxes has some appeal.

The reality is rather different. Trump's proposal for a 60 per cent US tariff on imports from China and a 10 per cent US tariff on goods from all other economies would in effect be a tax on ordinary Americans causing a new round of inflation.

The UK think-tank NIESR estimates that such a move could knock 5pc off US output over the next five years.

As for the Trump tax cut, it would benefit Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos more than working people.

The polls show the presidential candidates locked neck and neck. At the annual meeting of the IMF last week, almost every policymaker, including governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, referenced geopolitics and the Middle East, in particular, as the greatest threat to global stability. Nevertheless the oil price remains relatively stable.

The real unspoken fear was of a second Trump term, beggar-thy-neighbour trade policies, fragmentation of commerce and a soft landing which becomes much harder.

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ALEX BRUMMER: Trump casts a global pall with his trade policies (2024)

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